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3-0 Count: Take or Green Light
June - July 2009

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OPur
When percentage baseball and desired outcome clash
This has definitely been one of the more interesting polls we've conducted in the past few years. The original question was simple - do you agree with giving batters a take sign on a 3-0 count or should they have a green light to swing. The debate was sparked by a continuing conversation on the baseballthink blog site run by Andy Katz. We thought we'd formalize the discussion by putting voter numbers to it.

Normally, when we run a survey, the results start with charts of each question and then a collection of general voter comments. But this one is different. Why? Because there are so many situational specifics (love baseball for that!), we didn't think we could cover them all. So we start with some voters comments about the limitations of such a survey...
The issue is made complex by the nature of the hitter, the score, the inning, available relief pitchers, and the field conditions and the ump. This will also vary depending on the level of play.
As you have already found out the 3-0 count is situational and even with the best hitters can be situational and the kind of day they are having. As always you have to make the pitcher throw strikes.
Where you are in the game ... early, middle, or late innings. Are you behind, even or protecting a lead. I look at these situations and then match them to my hitter's ability. 
Young (12 and under) hitters almost always get a green light from me. I want them swinging the bat and having fun.
That last comment, in WebBall's view, should be a real factor. We did not ask about player age so when a voter stated "always take" is that for age 10, 12, 17?

Then there is the individual factor. Many comments pointed out the challenges of having "guidelines" when it can depend on the personality or ability of the hitter. This comment put it best...
Although I do let some of my hitters swing on a 3-0 count what usually happens is that they do not look for a particular pitch in their "red" zone to hit. I tell them even if the pitch is a strike if it is not in their perfect pitch zone do not swing, you still have two more hacks to take. And guess what happens, 7 out of 10 swings are either out of the strike zone or not the dead red type of pitch a batter can hit hard.
In other words, baseball isn't about a scripted coaching strategy - it's about what individual players will do to either follow or stray from the script.

So there's some context for what follows. We show the results for each poll question - then add our own opinion on whether the majority result surprised us or not. In the end this is not a survey in which there can be one right or wrong answer for any situation - not unless you consider ALL the variables as noted above - and more.

The first question was to establish a benchmark...


Our opinion: Even coaches at the extremes who would not need to have a "take" indicator (assuming their players understood their absolute rule) should have a sign, only because "never" is such a long time. Besides, "always take" can be a missed opportunity when you just KNOW the pitcher is about to grove one down main street.

For the specific scenarios below, the color coding is consistent...
 TAKE SIGN     GREEN LIGHT    NOT SURE 
The bar charts are all based on 100% of respondents.



Our opinion: The 3-0 vs 3-1 comment above applies here. As does the "red zone" concern. But any hitter who will get overanxious and chase on 3-0 is in worse shape on 3-1. However a locked-in contact hitter is exactly the guy to be given a green light - just so everyone is clear that "green" does not meaning swing, it means you may swing if the pitch is right. (A "have to swing" scenario would be on a "hit and run" sign.)

Our opinion: The almost automatic "take" here by most coaches overlooks something very important - the pitcher is under extreme pressure.

Our opinion: What makes this different is the two outs. The defense may be more confident, or the pitcher more anxious. As one voter said: "Why give the pitcher a free pitch? Historically the batter will take. I say if he is going to put it down the middle for you, you should crack it"


Our opinion: We were surprised that anyone would say "take" here. Sure, they're likely to pitch away to avoid the big hurt, but what an opportunity if the pitcher misses over the plate. We say "green light" and if the pitch misses, then take the walk. In the words of one voter: "I realize that a walk is just as good as a hit in terms of getting on base. But, dammit... I can't see watching a high percentage of get-me-over fastballs which should be hit and hit hard. A batter doesn't get that many good pitches to hit in the first place."


Our opinion: This is real split decision, and it can depend on how we got here (see the next two questions). But a walk does nothing here, and if the run is critical, and the pitcher has not missed by a foot and is looking (hoping?) for a take here, then what about a suicide squeeze - a batter might not be able to hit an imperfect pitch hard, but could reach almost anything but a ball way outside. Sure it's a risk, that's why game situations matter. Then again, hitting against a drawn-in infield could be equally successful.

Our opinion: No surprise on the voting, but if there is any time when a pitcher is likely to be very careful at aiming for the middle of the plate with a gentle - and crushable - fastball, this might be it. Still, this is definitely a time when a 3-1 take is as good as 3-0.

Our opinion: If he has just missed then the 3-0 pitch should be there - not a time to insist your batter go to 3-1, yet a surprising majority of voters say "take".

Our opinion: a bit of a trick question. More than one voter mentioned umpire calls. Here's the thing: He could easily call an outside or low pitch a strike, maybe even one on the letters. If you know that then so does the pitcher and he won't throw down main street. In other words, this 3-0 pitch will not be a good one to hit. Here's how one voter explained it: "While I agree that a hitter may go wildly after a 3-1 pitch, I think a hitter is more likely to do the same thing on a 3-0 pitch if given the green light. Hitters are accustomed to and wrongly assume that a 3-0 pitch is automatically going to be their perfect pitch when from what I see, the 3-0 pitch when it is a strike is not always right down the middle. In fact, I believe the 3-0 pitch is one of the most liberal strike calls you will see." So swallow the inevitable 3-1 call and get ready for the next one.

Our opinion: This could very much depend on who you have in the on-deck circle. The trouble with contact hitters is they are also less committed to full force swings (especially on a 3-0 pitch) and a ground-out here kills a potentially big inning. We suggest take. If it goes 4-0 then the bases loaded scenario will let the next batter see better pitches (or a new pitcher?). And if it goes 3-1, then your batter may clutch up. It's baseball - nothing is ever for certain!
We received other voter comments, too many to share. And we welcome more. Plus, if you like the idea of this kind of situational poll, then please suggest scenarios other than 3-0. Send your ideas to us by clicking the mail icon below...
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